Decline in Cardiovascular Mortality: Possible Causes and Implications.

If the control of infectious diseases was the public health success story of the first half of the 20th century, then the decline in mortality from coronary heart disease and stroke has been the success story of the century's past 4 decades. The early phase of this decline in coronary heart disease and stroke was unexpected and controversial when first reported in the mid-1970s, having followed 60 years of gradual increase as the US population aged. However, in 1978, the participants in a conference convened by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute concluded that a significant recent downtick in coronary heart disease and stroke mortality rates had definitely occurred, at least in the US Since 1978, a sharp decline in mortality rates from coronary heart disease and stroke has become unmistakable throughout the industrialized world, with age-adjusted mortality rates having declined to about one third of their 1960s baseline by 2000. Models have shown that this remarkable decline has been fueled by rapid progress in both prevention and treatment, including precipitous declines in cigarette smoking, improvements in hypertension treatment and control, widespread use of statins to lower circulating cholesterol levels, and the development and timely use of thrombolysis and stents in acute coronary syndrome to limit or prevent infarction. However, despite the huge growth in knowledge and advances in prevention and treatment, there remain many questions about this decline. In fact, there is evidence that the rate of decline may have abated and may even be showing early signs of reversal in some population groups. The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, through a request for information, is soliciting input that could inform a follow-up conference on or near the 40th anniversary of the original landmark conference to further explore these trends in cardiovascular mortality in the context of what has come before and what may lie ahead.

Prevalence of Low Cardiovascular Risk Profile Among Diverse Hispanic/Latino Adults in the United States by Age, Sex, and Level of Acculturation: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

BACKGROUND: Favorable levels of all readily measurable major cardiovascular disease risk factors (ie, low risk [LR]) are associated with lower risks of cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Data are not available on LR prevalence among Hispanic/Latino adults of diverse ethnic backgrounds. This study aimed to describe the prevalence of a low cardiovascular disease risk profile among Hispanic/Latino adults in the United States and to examine cross-sectional associations of LR with measures of acculturation. METHODS AND RESULTS: The multicenter, prospective, population-based Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos examined 16 415 men and women aged 18 to 74 years at baseline (2008-2011) with diverse Hispanic/Latino backgrounds. Analyses involved 14 757 adults (mean age 41.3 years; 60.6% women). LR was defined using national guidelines for favorable levels of serum cholesterol, blood pressure, and body mass index and by not having diabetes mellitus and not currently smoking. Age-adjusted LR prevalence was low (8.4% overall; 5.1% for men, 11.2% for women) and varied by background (4.2% in men of Mexican heritage versus 15.0% in women of Cuban heritage). Lower acculturation (assessed using proxy measures) was significantly associated with higher odds of a LR profile among women only: Age-adjusted odds ratios of having LR were 1.64 (95% CI 1.24-2.17) for foreign-born versus US-born women and 1.96 (95% CI 1.49-2.58) for women residing in the United States <10 versus ≥10 years. CONCLUSIONS: Among diverse US Hispanic/Latino adults, the prevalence of a LR profile is low. Lower acculturation is associated with higher odds of a LR profile among women but not men. Comprehensive public health strategies are needed to improve the cardiovascular health of US Hispanic/Latino adults.

Individual education, area income, and mortality and recurrence of myocardial infarction in a Medicare cohort: the National Longitudinal Mortality Study.

BACKGROUND: The Medicare program provides universal access to hospital care for the elderly; however, mortality disparities may still persist in this population. The association of individual education and area income with survival and recurrence post Myocardial Infarction (MI) was assessed in a national sample. METHODS: Individual level education from the National Longitudinal Mortality Study was linked to Medicare and National Death Index records over the period of 1991-2001 to test the association of individual education and zip code tabulation area median income with survival and recurrence post-MI. Survival was partitioned into 3 periods: in-hospital, discharge to 1 year, and 1 year to 5 years and recurrence was partitioned into two periods: 28 day to 1 year, and 1 year to 5 years. RESULTS: First MIs were found in 8,043 women and 7,929 men. In women and men 66-79 years of age, less than a high school education compared with a college degree or more was associated with 1-5 year mortality in both women (HRR 1.61, 95% confidence interval 1.03-2.50) and men (HRR 1.37, 1.06-1.76). Education was also associated with 1-5 year recurrence in men (HRR 1.68, 1.18-2.41, < High School compared with college degree or more), but not women. Across the spectrum of survival and recurrence periods median zip code level income was inconsistently associated with outcomes. Associations were limited to discharge-1 year survival (RR lowest versus highest quintile 1.31, 95% confidence interval 1.03-1.67) and 28 day-1 year recurrence (RR lowest versus highest quintile 1.72, 95% confidence interval 1.14-2.57) in older men. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the Medicare entitlement program, disparities related to individual socioeconomic status remain. Additional research is needed to elucidate the barriers and mechanisms to eliminating health disparities among the elderly.

Redistribution of heart failure as the cause of death: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Heart failure is sometimes incorrectly listed as the underlying cause of death (UCD) on death certificates, thus compromising the accuracy and comparability of mortality statistics. Statistical redistribution of the UCD has been used to examine the effect of misclassification of the UCD attributed to heart failure, but sex- and race-specific redistribution of deaths on coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the United States has not been examined. METHODS: We used coarsened exact matching to infer the UCD of vital records with heart failure as the UCD from 1999 to 2010 for decedents 55 years old and older from states encompassing regions under surveillance by the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study (Maryland, Minnesota, Mississippi, and North Carolina). Records with heart failure as the UCD were matched on decedent characteristics (five-year age groups, sex, race, education, year of death, and state) to records with heart failure listed among the multiple causes of death. Each heart failure death was then redistributed to plausible UCDs proportional to the frequency among matched records. RESULTS: After redistribution the proportion of deaths increased for CHD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, hypertensive heart disease, and cardiomyopathy, P < 0.001. The percent increase in CHD mortality after redistribution was the highest in Mississippi (12%) and lowest in Maryland (1.6%), with variations by year, race, and sex. Redistribution proportions for CHD were similar to CHD death classification by a panel of expert reviewers in the ARIC study. CONCLUSIONS: Redistribution of ill-defined UCD would improve the accuracy and comparability of mortality statistics used to allocate public health resources and monitor mortality trends.

Prevalence of hypertension, awareness, treatment, and control in the Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos.

BACKGROUND: The prevention and control of hypertension is an essential component for reducing the burden of cardiovascular diseases. Here we describe the prevalence of hypertension in diverse Hispanic/Latino background groups and describe the proportion who are aware of their diagnosis, receiving treatment, and having their hypertension under control. METHODS: The Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos is a longitudinal cohort study of 16,415 Hispanics/Latinos, aged 18-74 years from 4 US communities (Bronx, NY; Chicago, IL; Miami, FL; and San Diego, CA). At baseline (2008-2011) the study collected extensive measurements and completed questionnaires related to research on cardiovascular diseases. Hypertension was defined as measured blood pressure ≥140/90mm Hg or use of antihypertensive medication. RESULTS: The total age-adjusted prevalence of hypertension in this study was 25.5% as compared with 27.4% in non-Hispanic whites in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Prevalence of hypertension increased with increasing age groups and was highest in Cuban, Puerto Rican, and Dominican background groups. The percent with hypertension who were aware, being treated with medication, or had their hypertension controlled was lower compared with US non-Hispanic whites with hypertension and it was lowest in those without health insurance. CONCLUSIONS: These findings indicate a significant deficit in treatment and control of hypertension among Hispanics/Latinos residing in the United States, particularly those without health insurance. Given the relative ease of identification of hypertension and the availability of low-cost medications, enabling better access to diagnostic and treatment services should reduce the burden of hypertension in Hispanic populations.

Prevalence of major cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular diseases among Hispanic/Latino individuals of diverse backgrounds in the United States.

CONTEXT: Major cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are leading causes of mortality among US Hispanic and Latino individuals. Comprehensive data are limited regarding the prevalence of CVD risk factors in this population and relations of these traits to socioeconomic status (SES) and acculturation. OBJECTIVES: To describe prevalence of major CVD risk factors and CVD (coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) among US Hispanic/Latino individuals of different backgrounds, examine relationships of SES and acculturation with CVD risk profiles and CVD, and assess cross-sectional associations of CVD risk factors with CVD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Multicenter, prospective, population-based Hispanic Community Health Study/Study of Latinos including individuals of Cuban (n = 2201), Dominican (n = 1400), Mexican (n = 6232), Puerto Rican (n = 2590), Central American (n = 1634), and South American backgrounds (n = 1022) aged 18 to 74 years. Analyses involved 15,079 participants with complete data enrolled between March 2008 and June 2011. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Adverse CVD risk factors defined using national guidelines for hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, obesity, diabetes, and smoking. Prevalence of CHD and stroke were ascertained from self-reported data. RESULTS: Age-standardized prevalence of CVD risk factors varied by Hispanic/Latino background; obesity and current smoking rates were highest among Puerto Rican participants (for men, 40.9% and 34.7%; for women, 51.4% and 31.7%, respectively); hypercholesterolemia prevalence was highest among Central American men (54.9%) and Puerto Rican women (41.0%). Large proportions of participants (80% of men, 71% of women) had at least 1 risk factor. Age- and sex-adjusted prevalence of 3 or more risk factors was highest in Puerto Rican participants (25.0%) and significantly higher (P < .001) among participants with less education (16.1%), those who were US-born (18.5%), those who had lived in the United States 10 years or longer (15.7%), and those who preferred English (17.9%). Overall, self-reported CHD and stroke prevalence were low (4.2% and 2.0% in men; 2.4% and 1.2% in women, respectively). In multivariate-adjusted models, hypertension and smoking were directly associated with CHD in both sexes as were hypercholesterolemia and obesity in women and diabetes in men (odds ratios [ORs], 1.5-2.2). For stroke, associations were positive with hypertension in both sexes, diabetes in men, and smoking in women (ORs, 1.7-2.6). CONCLUSION: Among US Hispanic/Latino adults of diverse backgrounds, a sizeable proportion of men and women had adverse major risk factors; prevalence of adverse CVD risk profiles was higher among participants with Puerto Rican background, lower SES, and higher levels of acculturation.

Trends in serum lipids among US youths aged 6 to 19 years, 1988-2010.

CONTEXT: For more than 20 years, primary prevention of coronary heart disease has included strategies intended to improve overall serum lipid concentrations among youths. OBJECTIVE: To examine trends in lipid concentrations among youths from 1988-1994 through 2007-2010. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Cross-sectional analysis of serum lipid concentrations among 16,116 youths aged 6 to 19 years who participated in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey during 3 time periods: 1988-1994, 1999-2002, and 2007-2010. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Among all youths, mean serum total cholesterol (TC), non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C); and among adolescents only, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and geometric mean triglyceride levels. Trends in adverse lipid concentrations are reported for TC levels of 200 mg/dL and greater, non-HDL-C levels of 145 mg/dL and greater, HDL-C levels of less than 40 mg/dL, LDL-C levels of 130 mg/dL and greater, and triglyceride levels of 130 mg/dL and greater. RESULTS: Among youths aged 6 to 19 years between 1988-1994 and 2007-2010, there was a decrease in mean TC (from 165 mg/dL [95% CI, 164-167] to 160 mg/dL [95% CI, 158-161]; P < .001) and a decrease in the prevalence of elevated TC (from 11.3% [95% CI, 9.8%-12.7%] to 8.1% [95% CI, 6.7%-9.5%]; P = .002). Mean HDL-C significantly increased between 1988-1994 and 2007-2010, but the prevalence of low HDL-C did not change. Mean non-HDL-C and prevalence of elevated non-HDL-C both significantly decreased over the study period. In 2007-2010, 22% (95% CI, 20.3%-23.6%) of youths had either a low HDL-C level or high non-HDL-C, which was lower than the 27.2% (95% CI, 24.6%-29.7%) in 1988-1994 (P = .001). Among adolescents (aged 12-19 years) between 1988-1994 and 2007-2010, there was a decrease in mean LDL-C (from 95 mg/dL [95% CI, 92-98] to 90 mg/dL [95% CI, 88-91]; P = .003) and a decrease in geometric mean triglycerides (from 82 mg/dL [95% CI, 78-86] to 73 mg/dL [95% CI, 70-76]; P < .001). Prevalence of elevated LDL-C and triglycerides between 1988-1994 and 2007-2010 also significantly decreased. CONCLUSIONS: Between 1988-1994 and 2007-2010, a favorable trend in serum lipid concentrations was observed among youths in the United States but almost 1 in 10 had elevated TC in 2007-2010.

Cardiovascular epidemiology in a changing world--challenges to investigators and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Over the past 60 years, revolutionary discoveries made by epidemiologists have contributed to marked declines in cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Now, in an era of increasingly constrained resources, researchers in cardiovascular epidemiology face a number of challenges that call for novel, paradigm-shifting approaches. In this paper, the authors pose to the community 4 critical questions: 1) How can we avoid wasting resources on studies that provide little incremental knowledge? 2) How can we assure that we direct our resources as economically as possible towards innovative science? 3) How can we be nimble, responding quickly to new opportunities? 4) How can we identify prospectively the most meritorious research questions? Senior program staff at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute invite the epidemiology community to join them in an ongoing Web-based blog conversation so that together we might develop novel approaches that will facilitate the next generation of high-impact discoveries.

Lifestyle factors and risk for new-onset diabetes: a population-based cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic data on the combined influence of several lifestyle factors on diabetes risk are rare, particularly among older adults. OBJECTIVE: To examine how combinations of lifestyle risk factors relate to the 11-year risk for incident diabetes. DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study. SETTING: National Institutes of Health (NIH)-AARP Diet and Health Study. PARTICIPANTS: 114,996 men and 92,483 women, aged 50 to 71 years in 1995 to 1996, without evidence of heart disease, cancer, or diabetes. MEASUREMENTS: A comprehensive survey of demographic characteristics and lifestyle factors, including dietary intake, body weight and height, physical activity, smoking, and alcohol consumption at baseline (1995 to 1996). Low-risk groups were formed by dichotomizing each lifestyle factor. Incident self-reported, physician-diagnosed diabetes was identified with a follow-up survey in 2004 to 2006. RESULTS: 11,031 men (9.6%) and 6969 women (7.5%) developed new-onset diabetes. For each additional lifestyle factor in the low-risk group, the odds for diabetes were 31% lower (odds ratio [OR], 0.69 [95% CI, 0.68 to 0.71]) among men and 39% lower (OR, 0.61 [CI, 0.60 to 0.63]) among women. Men and women whose diet score, physical activity level, smoking status, and alcohol use were all in the low-risk group had ORs for diabetes of 0.61 (CI, 0.56 to 0.66) and 0.43 (CI, 0.34 to 0.55), respectively. When absence of overweight or obesity was added, the respective ORs were 0.28 (CI, 0.23 to 0.34) and 0.16 (CI, 0.10 to 0.24) for men and women. Results did not differ by family history of diabetes or level of adiposity. LIMITATION: The study was observational, with potential for residual confounding. CONCLUSION: Lifestyle factors, when considered in combination, are associated with a substantial reduction in risk for diabetes. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: The NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH.